China Is Really Number Two

China's coming on strong while our leaders chase theestimates China's GDP to be $2.225 trillion. On a
terrorists across the globe. Recently much internationalpurchase power parity basis that figure is $8.859 trillion.
press fanfare was generated acknowledging thatIn comparison the U.S. shows an economy of $12.49
China had replaced Great Britain as the world's fourthtrillion based on exchange rates and $12.36 trillion
largest economy. Nobody argues nowadays thatbased on purchase power parity. Based on exchange
China has the highest growth rate of industrializedrates, China is the 4th largest economy in the world.
economics posting annual growth rates in excess ofBut based on purchase power parity China is clearly
8.5 percent according to The International Monetarynumber 2. And the Factbook acknowledges, Measured
Fund. The World Bank predicted recently that China'son a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, China in
economy will grow 10.4 percent this year and 9.32005 stood as the second-largest economy in the
percent in 2007. In contrast, the United States is in theworld after the US.... Noted magazine, The Economist
2 to 3 percent range. What's not been said by our lessreported, By 2020, China will narrowly outstrip the
than candid leaders is that China is already the secondUnited States in GDP. China already exceeds the U.S.
largest global economy and has held that spot forin production of many strategic minerals and metals.
sometime and catching the U.S. very quickly. TheAnd its industrial base is now larger as well. According
Chinese economy is already 72 percent the size ofto the Factbook China's industrial output now stands at
the U.S. economy. One only need reference the 20064.19 trillion dollars as compared to 2.52 Trillion for the
CIA World Factbook. There it is for the whole world toUnited States. Chinese annual industrial growth is 29.5
see. A country's economic output is measured, andpercent but only 3.5 percent here in the U.S. Another
compared to other countries, by a standard known assignificant trend worth noting is leadership in world
GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, which is measuredtrade. A recent Wall Street Journal article written by
in two ways, one by international exchanges rates andAndrew Batson and Shai Oster reports that Egypt's
by purchase power parity. Exchange rates are thetrade with the China will exceed that of the United
norm used by most private and public internationalStates by the year 2012. And this trend is evolving with
agencies. But more recently experts have suggestedmany countries, even in our own hemisphere.
that international exchanges rates distort the trueAmerica's eroding industrial base is compromising the
picture. Value distortions exist between the currenciesnation's military capabilities. This was recently highlighted
of the trading nations, in particular, when currencies arein the Pentagon's 2005 Quadrennial Defense Review
something less than free-floating in the open market.when it concluded, Sourcing and production is now
The Chinese Yuan is mostly a fixed-rate currencyglobal, with considerable implications for the industrial
pegged to the value of the U.S. Dollar. The exchangebase. This same Defense Department study raised
value is only changed by Chinese government, a littlealarm bells about China when it concluded, the industrial
at a time generally to appease the U.S. Congress.and economic power wielded by China, and how this
Therefore GDP figures between the two nations arerelates to the country's political and military aspirations,
distorted. Countries with free trading currencies canis seen as a cause for concern. But our leaders
safely use exchange rates as a measure ofalready know this stuff. They just need to level with
comparison between their respective GDP's. In thethe American people instead of spoon feeding them
absence of free trading, purchase power parity isstatistical manure. Soon we will be Number Two. And
used as the standard of comparison. Purchasinglet's not forget the echo of Khrushchev's thundering
power parity equalizes the purchasing power ofUN speech 50 years ago declaring the East will
different currencies in their home countries for a givenoverrun the West. It's happening before are very eyes.
basket of goods. This is often used by globalJames Silvester is a small biz author and consultant.
economists, and our CIA, to compare the economicHe has written 4 best selling entrepreneurial books with
output countries. The difference in an exchange ratea 5th on the way, and has appeared on many radio
and purchase power parity analysis of the China GDPand TV shows including MSNBC. The books have
is nothing less than astonishing and should be downrightforewords contributed by the Virginia Governor and a
frightening to American leaders. For example, on anU.S. Senator.
exchange rate basis, the CIA World Factbook